基于突变级数法的区域低碳经济水平及协调性评价——以陕西省为例

以陕西省为研究对象,构建了一套由低碳系统和发展系统组成的低碳经济评价指标体系。综合运用熵值法、突变级数模型和协调模型,对该省2003-2011年的低碳经济发展水平和协调性进行了评价。结果表明,陕西低碳经济发展水平由2003-2006年的"差"级别转变为2007年的"一般"级别和2008-2011年的"良好"级别;陕西省低碳经济发展进程中,生态环境保护水平提升较快,产业结构和能源结构变动不稳定,技术对低碳经济的正效应逐渐凸显出来;陕西省低碳系统和发展系统在研究期内处于拮抗期,"十二五"期间,有望进入基本协调期,进而给低碳经济发展带来动力。

Evaluation on Development Level and Coordination of Low-carbon Economy Based on Catastrophe Progression Model-Taking Shaanxi Province as an Example

An evaluation index system was established for Shaanxi Province which consisted of low-carbon system and development system about low-carbon economy, and the level and coordination of Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2011 were evaluated using the model of entropy, catastrophe progression and coordinate. The results showed that the relatively level of the year from 2003 to 2006 was "unacceptable", that of the year 2007 was "average", and that of the year from 2008 to 2011 was "well". The level of ecological protection was obvious progress and the effect of technology to low-carbon economy was gradually highlighted, while industrial and energy structure was unstable in the development process of low-carbon economy in Shaanxi Province. Low-carbon system and development system in Shaanxi Province was antagonistic during the study period. During the 12th Five-Year Plan, it may enter the basic coordination phase and promote the development of low-carbon economy.