基于灰色模型的贵阳市土地利用/覆被变化的驱动力分析

以1993,2000,2010年3期TM遥感影像为基本数据源,采用RS与GIS技术、结合统计分析的方法,提取和分析了贵阳市土地利用/覆被变化信息,并选取13个主要土地利用/覆被变化驱动因子,运用灰色模型定量地分析不同地类与各驱动因子之间的关联性。结果显示:(1)研究期间,贵阳市水田、旱地、灌木林、未利用地面积分别减少了135.2,55.4,80.8和98.6 km²;而水域、有林地、建设用地面积分别增加了49.1,128.3和183.4 km²,其中建设用地面积增加最大,水田面积减少最大;(2)研究时段土地利用综合程度指数呈增大的变化趋势,1993,2000和2010年土地利用综合程度指数分别为301.2,307.7和319.0;(3)贵阳市土地利用结构信息熵由1993年的0.76上升到2001年的0.78,随后下降到2010年的0.77,表明贵阳市土地利用结构系统的有序性、稳定性呈先增加再减弱的变化趋势;(4)贵阳市土地利用/覆被变化主导驱动力是人口增长、经济发展及人均资源因素。

Analysis on Driving Factors of Land Use/Cover Change in Guiyang City Based on Grey Correlation Model

Based on the integrated technology of RS and GIS, combining the means of statistics and analysis, taking three TM remote sensing images in three periods(1993, 2000 and 2010 year) as the main data source, we analyzed LUCC, and selected thirsty chief driving factors of land use and cover change. Then quantitatively analyzed the correlation between different land types and different driving factors by grey correlation model in Guiyang City. The results showed as follows:(1) The area of paddy, dry land, brush and unused land reduced by 135.2, 55.4, 80.8, 98.6 km² respectively; but the area of water area, woodland and construction land increased by 49.1, 128.3, 183.4 km² respectively;(2) The comprehensive land use index was increased 301.2, 307.7, 319.0 in 1993, 2000 and 2010 respectively.(3) The orderliness and stability of land use structure system showed a trend of increase first then decrease, and the information entropy of land use structure raised from 0.76 in 1993 to 0.78 in 2001, then fell to 0.77 in 2010 in Guiyang City.(4) The main driving forces of LUCC in Guiyang City was population growth, economic development and per capita resource status.