江苏省1969~2016年降水时空变化特征分析

利用了1969~2016年江苏省13个气象基站逐日降水资料对江苏省过去近50年的年降水量进行时空分布特征分析。采用线性回归、经验正交分解(EOF)和小波变换等方法研究了1969~2016年江苏省年降水量的年际变化趋势、时空分布特征及其周期性。研究结果表明：近50年来,江苏省的年降水量呈不显著上升趋势；特别的,EOF将江苏省划分为3种降水类型：全年的空间分布整体一致性、南北反位相和苏中与苏南苏北的反位相；时间上,有24年表现为第一类降水类型,有14年表现为第二类降水类型,有4年表现为第三类降水类型；从周期上来看,近50年江苏省的年降水周期存在28a,15a,9a,4a的周期尺度。

Temporal and Spatial VariationCharacteristics of Precipitation in Jiangsu Province from 1969 to 2016

Based on the daily precipitation data of 13 meteorological base stations in Jiangsu Province from 1969 to 2016, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the annual precipitation in Jiangsu Province in the past 50 years were analyzed.. Linear regression, empirical orthogonal decomposition (EOF) and wavelet transform were used to study the interannual variation, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and periodicity of annual precipitation in Jiangsu Province from 1969 to 2016. The research results show that the annual precipitation in Jiangsu Province has not increased significantly in the past 50 years. In particular, EOF divides Jiangsu Province into three types of precipitation: the overall spatial distribution of the whole year, the north-south anti-phase and the anti-phase between Suzhong and South Jiangsu and North Jiangsu; from the time change point of view, there are 24 years of performance as the first type of precipitation, 14 years as the second type of precipitation, and 5 years as the third type of precipitation. From the cycle point of view, the annual precipitation cycle of Jiangsu Province in the past 50 years has a periodic scale of 20~27a, 12~13a, 7~8a, and 3~5a.