应用多主体复杂适应系统理论的宅基地退出补偿定价

该研究以浙江省嘉兴市、义乌市、泰顺县3个宅基地退出的典型区域为例,基于复杂适应系统理论和多主体模拟方法对微观主体的交互行为进行仿真模拟,从微观农户尺度对宅基地退出补偿进行定价。结果表明:1)不同区域宅基地定价区间具有显著差异,且同一区域城中村、近郊、远郊和边远型宅基地价值差距明显;2)农户退出意愿越强,在谈判中与政府交互次数越少,其定价区间的增幅越低。各地城中村均为退出意愿较低的区域,需要更多次谈判才完全同意退出,而边远型退出意愿则相对较强。随着初始农户强硬度μ值的增大,农户与政府的迭代次数近似符合线性增长;强硬度阈值增大,也会相应增加农户与政府的谈判次数,增加政府成本。宅基地退出定价可以为管理部门制定补偿价格范围提供科学参考,基于多主体复杂适应系统(CAS,complex adaptive system)理论的仿真模拟可以为该方面的研究提供新思路,也为进一步完善宅基地制度改革提供科学依据。

Compensation pricing of rural residential land exit based on multi-agent complex adaptive system theory

Simulation of rural residential land exit pricing can provide reference compensation price and range for the government.The state encourages the conditional transfer of rural residential land and allows farmers who have already settled in urban area to exit the rural residential land willingly.The function evaluation and value accounting of rural residential land are important links to promote the transfer of rural residential land into the market,revitalize rural assets and protect farmers’land rights and interests.Three places were chosen as typical regions to study rural residential land exit,including Jiaxing City in the north Zhejiang plain,Yiwu City in the middle Zhejiang foothill basin and Taishun County in the south Zhejiang mountain area.Based on the law of distance attenuation,taking the designated town as the research unit,according to the distance between the rural residential land and the town center,the rural residential land was divided into urban villages,suburbs,outer suburbs,and remote areas.On this basis,the initial compensation amount for rural residential land exit in different regions and different locations was calculated based on the function of rural residential land.Built the simulation model in Java according to the actual rural residential land exit process.Then based on the complex adaptive system theory and multi-agent simulation method,this paper simulated the interaction behavior of micro-subjects and tried to price the residential land exit compensation from the scale of micro-farmers.The results showed that:1)The compensation price range of rural residential land in different regions had significant differences,and the price gap between urban villages,suburbs,outer suburbs and remote areas in the same region was significant.All the urban villages of three regions had a low willingness to exit,which required more negotiations before they fully agreed to exit,while the villages of the remote areas had a relatively strong willingness to exit,among which the suburbs of Jiaxing City had the strongest desire to exit.2)The stronger the farmer’s willingness to exit,the less the number of interactions with the government in the negotiations,and the lower the increase in the price range.The urban villagers in three areas were the regions with low willingness to exit.They needed more negotiations to fully agree to exit,while the remote areas farmers’exit willingness were relatively strong.As the initial farmer's tough degree μ value increased,the number of iterations between farmers and the government increased linearly.Increasing the threshold of a tough degree would correspondingly increase the number of negotiations between farmers and the government and increase government costs.The amount of compensation that the government can increase in each negotiation is determined comprehensively by the local government's financial situation,administrative level and capacity to be close to civilians,which may vary in different regions.The larger the amount parameter(d)increased in each negotiation,the higher the total amount of the final exit compensation will be.Based on complex adaptive system theory,the multi-agent simulation method can provide new ideas for rural residential land exit pricing and scientific references for further improvement of rural residential land system reform.