新疆生产建设兵团耕地变化趋势研究

根据新疆生产建设兵团的统计资料,分析了兵团1982年以来耕地面积变化的总体趋势和驱动因子.结果表明,经济、社会和农业技术是影响兵团耕地数量变化的三类主要因素.通过建立多元回归模型,预测出2010和2015年的耕地数量.研究结果和分析结论对兵团农业可持续发展具有重要意义.

Analysis on the Trend of Cultivated Land Quantitative Change in Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps

: According to the statistical data, the general trend and driving forces of cultivated land change of Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps from 1982 are discussed in this paper. The results showed that economy, society and agricultural technology are three main factors that affect the numeral change of cultivated land of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. By using regressive equation , along with population growth and economic development , the prediction of cultivated land in Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps is done in 2010 and 2015. The prediction result is that Xinjiang Production & Construction Corp's farmland area will be 1 209.59×10~3 hm~2 in 2010 and 1 420.50×10~3 hm~2 in 2015. The analytical results and conclusions of this paper will provide scientific basis for sustainable agricultural development in Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps.