农业水利工程建设风险分析

农业水利工程建设项目为投资大、建设周期长、内部结构复杂、参与方众多的复杂开放系统，受制于时间、资源、环境等条件的制约。该文运用层次分析原理和方法建立农业水利工程建设的风险三层结构体系，并通过Monte Carlo模拟，对某一农业水利工程建设的风险进行了分析。结果表明：此项农业水利工程建设的风险的主要存在于坝体变形、坝体渗漏和坝基的渗漏、渗透物。对于主要用于社会效益和生态效益的农业水利工程，应加强坝体防漏和变形等加固措施，以降低工程风险。

Risk analysis on construction of agricultural water conservancy projects

Project of agricultural water conservancy construction is an open and complex system with huge investment, long construction period, complex internal structure and many participants, and which is restrained by time, resources, environment, and so on. The paper aimed to establish a 3-layer structure system of the risks of agricultural water conservancy construction by applying Analytic Hierarchy Process and analyze risks of the construction of a water conservancy project by using Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that the main risks of the project are the deformation and leakage of the dam, leakage and penetration objects of the dam foundation. Therefore, for the agricultural water conservancy projects that are mainly used for social and ecological benefits, more strategies should be applied to avoid dam leakage and deformation of engineering so as to reduce the risks of the project.