近50年菏泽市暴雨气候特征

为了揭示菏泽市暴雨气候特征，笔者利用菏泽市9个气象站50年的暴雨资料进行了研究。选取1960—2009年历年3—11月菏泽市9个站的逐日（20:00—20:00）降水资料，采用多种统计方法分析菏泽市多年暴雨气候规律。结果表明：菏泽市暴雨年际变化及年代际变化离差较大，60年代暴雨较多，之后较少，2000年之后又呈增长趋势。并且在1974年和2003年发生明显突变。1974年以前和2003年以来暴雨发生次数较多，1975—2002年期间暴雨发生次数较少。暴雨发生有明显的区域性，区域分布呈东南向西北递减的趋势，并且南北易受不同系统影响。本研究对做好暴雨预报，开拓气象服务，防灾减灾有一定参考作用。

Climatic Characteristics of Rainstorm in Heze City in Recent 50 Years

In order to reveal the characteristics of rainstorm in Heze City, a research was conducted by using the recent 50 years’rainstorm data from 9 weather stations of Heze City. The author selected the daily (20:00-20:00) precipitation data from the 9 weather stations of Heze City between March and November from 1960 to 2009, and used multiple statistic methods to analyze the multi-year regularities of rainstorm in Heze City. Results indicated that big deviations existed in the annual variations and inter- decadal variations of rainstorms; there were more rainstorms in the 1960s, but there were fewer ones thereafter, and after 2000, the rainstorm had a tendency of increase; in addition, there were obvious mutations in 1974 and 2003. Before 1974 and after 2003, there were more incidences of rainstorms. Fewer rainstorms were observed during 1975 to 2002. The occurrence of rainstorms had obviously regional characteristics, with the regional distribution presenting a tendency of gradual reduction from southwest to northwest; and the south and the north were easily prone to the influences of different systems. This research could provide some reference for the forecast of rainstorms, the development of meteorological services and the disaster prevention and mitigation.