蓝莓生态气候适宜度评价指标及模型的设计

为了客观有效地评价生态气候资源对蓝莓生长发育的适宜状况,基于科学性、系统性、实用性及动态性的原则,从蓝莓的种植区域生态环境、生育期气候条件、田间管理水平3个方面选取了12项指标,构建了蓝莓生态气候适宜度评价指标体系。运用模糊数学理论,分别建立了土壤、气温等评价因子对蓝莓生态气候适宜度的隶属函数,并结合专家打分法对各因子的权重进行了分配,构建一个二级层次结构的评价模型。通过评价模型可定量化计算出确定品种的蓝莓在具体种植地和时间段的生态气候适宜程度。本研究填补了国内蓝莓生态气候适宜性模糊评价的空白,为蓝莓引种、建园、产量及品质预测、气象灾害损失评估等提供科学依据。

Design of Eco-climate Suitability Evaluation Index and Model of Blueberry

In order to evaluate the suitability of the eco-climate resources for the growth and development of blueberry, the evaluation index system of eco-climate suitability of blueberry was established based on the scientific, systematic, practical and dynamic principles, 12 indexes from 3 aspects (the ecological environment, the climate condition in growth period and field management level) were selected. The membership functions of the soil, temperature and other factors on the eco-climate suitability of blueberry were established by the fuzzy mathematics theory, meanwhile, a two-level hierarchy evaluation model was constructed combined with the expert scoring method of the weight of each factor. The eco-climate suitability degree of blueberry in the specific cultivation land and time period could be determined by the evaluation model. This study filled up the blank of the fuzzy evaluation of the eco-climate suitability of blueberry in China, provided a scientific basis for introduction, garden establishment, yield and quality prediction, and meteorological disaster assessment.