成都市温度和降雨变化趋势及其对农业的影响

利用成都市1951～2009年共59年的地面气象观测资料，分析了多年平均温度、总降雨量及多年季平均温度、降雨量的时间变化序列。结果表明，成都的温度变化趋势与全球变暖趋势相同，年降雨量呈明显的下降趋势；温度明显上升主要发生在春季，盛夏降雨下降迅速。通过M—K检验发现，春季温度突变发生在1968年，盛夏降雨突变发生在1977年。春季气温上升，积温增加，有利于春季农作物的栽种和生长；盛夏降雨逐年减少，伏旱会越来越多，应加强农业水利设施建设。

The Variation Trend of Temperature and Rainfall in Chengdu and Its Effect on Agriculture

By using the ground climate observation data of Chengdu from 1951 to 2009,the time variation sequence of mean temperature,total rainfall,seasonal mean temperature and precipitation were studied. The results showed that there is a trend of decreasing-increasing with the temperature and a trend of decreasing with the rainfall in Chengdu. The main temperature increasing occurred in spring and main rainfall decreasing occurred in summer. With the M-K method analysis,the spring temperature change time is 1968,and the summer rainfall change time is 1977 in Chengdu. With the temperature increasing in spring,the accumulated temperature will be higher,and it is beneficial to the agriculture. With the rainfall decreasing in summer,there is more summer drought. We need to build more water facilities to protect agriculture production in Chengdu.