第3代稻飞虱主要气象影响因子的通径分析及预测

研究气象因子对第3代稻飞虱发生、发展的影响,为稻飞虱的预报和防治提供科学依据.利用广东省化州市1993~2010年稻飞虱系统调查资料和气象资料,对第3代稻飞虱发生程度与主要气象因子进行相关和通径分析,建立回归预测模型.结果表明:上年8月下旬平均最高气温和当年1月上旬相对湿度是影响第3代稻飞虱发生程度的主导因子,上年8月下旬至9月中旬平均气温的直接作用次之,上年12月中旬至下旬降雨量、上年8月下旬温湿系数等对害虫发生程度的直接作用较小,但通过上年8月下旬平均最高气温发挥间接作用.利用逐步回归方法建立了第3代稻飞虱发生程度的预测模型,模型历史拟合准确率为87.8%,而2011年预测结果与实际发生实况一致.生产中可以应用拟合的模型对稻飞虱的发生为害进行预测预报.

A Path Analysis of Main Meteorological Factors Affecting Occurrence of The Third Generation of Rice Planthoppers As Well As Their Forecast

This study mainly involved effects of meteorological factors on the occurrence and development of the 3rd generation of plant-hoppers,and tried to provide scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of the planthoppers.By using the systematic survey data of plant-hoppers collected from 1993 to 2010 in Huazhou City,Guangdong Province,as well as the meteorological data,the correlation and path analyses were conducted to explore the occurrence degree of the 3rd generation of rice planthoppers and the main meteorological factors,thus the regression prediction model was founded.The results showed that the average maximum temperatures in late August last year and the relative humidity in early January this year were the dominant factors affecting the occurrence degree of the 3rd generation of rice planthoppers,followed by the direct effects of the average maximum temperatures from late August to mid-September last year,but the rainfall from mid-December to late December,and the temperatures and humidity coefficients in late August last year played a relatively small role in the occurrence degree of the insect pests,which however could play an indirect role in it through the average maximum temperatures in late August last year.The stepwise regression method was used to establish a predictive model of the occurrence degree of the 3rd generation of planthoppers.The history matching accuracy rate of this model reached 87.8%.In 2011,the predictions and the actual occurrence nearly matched.So the matching and fitting model could be applied to the occurrence and damage forecast of planthoppers.