用人-地关系中环公式对固原县人口增长与粮食生产的分析

本文以几个代表性国家的人口、耕地、人均耕地、人均粮食水平为背景,对固原县人口增长与粮食生产从过去9年、未来12年及不同人口增长率下的人均粮食前景作了分析。结果说明,如果按当前人口增长和粮食生产发展速度走下去,到本世纪末粮食短缺问题会更加严重。只有严格控制人口,增加农业投入才有较好的前景。

Application of the Central Link Formulae of Man-land Relationship in Land Use to Analyse for Population Growth and Food Production of Guyan County

The population growth reaches one hundred million in the world and twenty million in China every year. The prospect of mankind is clousely togetber with food production and so is the arable land change.How to tackle the relationship of population-food-arable land should be an imporrant problem in face of the world. This paper applying the central link formulae and gray system in population-food-arable land relationship does an analysis of population growth and food production of Guyuan County for 9 years in the past and 12 years in the future refering to some countries in the world, and it was done under different rates controlling population growth.The conclusion is that if it is going on as the current rates of population growth and food production to the end of the contury, the food shortage for Guyuan County will be very serious, and it is only controlling population growth strictly, and increassing agricultural input energetically the state in the future may be better.