| 耕地需求量预测方法探讨——以河南省南阳市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 张志,李江风,龚健. 耕地需求量预测方法探讨——以河南省南阳市为例[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2006, 34(20): 5319-5321 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张志 李江风 龚健 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学研究生院,湖北,武汉,430074
2. 中国地质大学资源学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析粮食需求预测法与数学模型法这2种常见耕地需求量预测方法的优点与不足,以河南省南阳市为例,提出了基于预留法的耕地需求量预测方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地需求量 粮食需求 数学模型 预留法 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2006）20-5319-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-05 |
Study on the Prediction Method of Cultivated Land Demand |
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| ZHANG Zhi, et al. Study on the Prediction Method of Cultivated Land Demand[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2006, 34(20): 5319-5321 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zhi et al |
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| Affiliation: | Graduate School of China University of Geoseiences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074 |
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| Abstract: | In the paper the advantage and disadvantage of the prediction method of food security and mathematic model used in the predication of the demand of cultivated land were analyzed and an new method of Supply-demand Balance Analysis was put forward to predict the future demand of the cultivated land in Nanyang city.Combined qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis,the method was abided by the principle of restriction of supply and induction of demand of cultivated land,which satisfied with the cultivated land use requirement of national economic development and key constructive projects.So it ensured that the predicted value was more dynamic,scientific and flexible than before. |
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| Keywords: | Prediction of cultivated land Food security Mathematic model Balance analysis of supply-demand |
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