基于GIS和气候、种群动态模型的红火蚁适生性分析

进行红火蚁Solenopsis invicta适生性分析，找出制约红火蚁种群发展因素及其潜在的地理分布是开展防控、监管工作的重要基础。利用气候模型和种群动态模型对红火蚁在中国可能的分布范围进行分析，并从地温和降雨两个方面探讨了其气候制约因素的地理分布特征。预测结果表明，红火蚁在我国广东、广西、福建、台湾、海南入侵定殖可能性很高，气候条件不能构成制约因素。云贵高原东南部、四川东部以及重庆、湖南、湖北、江西、浙江、安徽、江苏局部地区也存在被红火蚁入侵定殖的风险。两个模型预测相似的红火蚁分布北界为川西高原、陇南、关中、山西南部、河南北部、山东南部一线。当前红火蚁分布还远未达到其分布北界，且其分布范围还不大，仍然可通过执行严格防控、检疫策略以防止红火蚁进一步蔓延。

The analysis for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta

Finding the major determinants limiting geographical distribution of red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, is an important goal to provide presupposition of implementation a control or even eradication program in China. We predicted the range of S.invicta within China by applying two models: climate model (Climex model) and dynamic model of fire ant colony growth (Colony dynamic model CDM). We also explored the distribution factors of soil temperature and precipitation in China. The risk of all territory of five provinces or regions (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian and Taiwan), south parts of 4 provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan and Jiangxi) would be very high. From this high risk area, probability and suitability for S.invicta survival for northern China turned down to 0 gradually, both de- clared in Climex model and in colony dynamic model. The north limit line of S.invicta in China should lie on the north and west edge of Sichuan, south of Gansu, middle of Shannxi, north of Henan and then the south edge of Shandong. Basing on our investigation, it is also clear that S.invicta just finished first invasion step. The results of prediction and investigation suggest that there exists an opportunity to implement urgent control program, and the range expansion of S.invicta into neighboring provinces would occur without severe control.