GIS支持下的临汾市冬小麦动态估产模型研究

利用1982—2008年临汾市各县(市)的气象观测资料及冬小麦单产资料,在ArcGIS地理信息系统软件下,将各因子进行插值后,再提取耕地区域的要素信息,在SPSS 11.5统计软件中以旬为单位建立了临汾市冬小麦动态估产模型,并利用2008年的实测资料对模型进行了验证。结果表明,研究所建立的动态估产模型精度较高,其估产相对误差绝对值在0.33%～5.87%之间,具有较高的稳定性。同时,从模型估产的相对误差动态变化来看,随着时间的推移,即越临近小麦成熟期,估产误差越小,说明气象因素的累计作用对冬小麦估产具有重要的意义。

Study on GIS Based Winter Wheat Dynamic Yield Estimation Model in Linfen

Based on the census data of winter wheat yield and meteorological observation data from years 1982 to 2008,information of meteorological elements in cultivated land extracted by ArcGIS,a ten-day dynamic winter wheat yield estimation model was established on SPSS 11.5.These models were tested by winter wheat yield data of 2008.The result showed that the relative error absolute value of county-scale model was between 0.2% and 20.6%,the estimation accuracy of county-scale model was rather low.The relative error absolute value was between 0.33% and 5.87%,and the error was lesser and the stability high.At the mean time,from the relative error changes of the model estimation,the more it approached to wheat mature,the smaller yield estimation error was.It was concluded that the cumulative effect of meteorological factors on winter wheat yield estimation was of great significance.