| GM(1,1)模型在日本落叶松生长预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李丽锋 惠淑荣 刘,强 陶桂洪 宋,贽 陈忠维.GM(1,1)模型在日本落叶松生长预测中的应用[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(23):140-143. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李丽锋 惠淑荣 刘 强 陶桂洪 宋 贽 陈忠维 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]沈阳农业大学理学院,沈阳110161 [2]沈阳农业大学信息与电气工程学院,沈阳110161 |
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| 基金项目： | 2008辽宁省高等学校科研项目计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究运用GM(1，l)模型对辽宁省日本落叶松的生长进行了预测，并进行了模型精度检验，利用所建模型对林龄为21年和22年的日本落叶松平均胸径和平均数高分别进行了预测检验，林龄为21年的日本落叶松平均胸径和平均树高模拟值相对误差分别为2.40％和3.31%，林龄为22年的日本落叶松平均胸径和平均树高模拟值相对误差分别为3.69%和4.69%，均小于5％，表明模型预测精度较高，预测效果较好，可为日本落叶松林生长量的预测和经营水平的提高，提供科学的理论依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 北沙参 北沙参 根茎 试管苗 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/4/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 8/9/2010 12:00:00 AM |
Application of Grey System Theory to forecast Japanese Larch growth |
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| Li Lifeng,Hui Shurong,Liu Qiang,Tao Guihong,Song Zhi,Chen Zhongwei.Application of Grey System Theory to forecast Japanese Larch growth[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2010,26(23):140-143. |
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| Authors: | Li Lifeng Hui Shurong Liu Qiang Tao Guihong Song Zhi Chen Zhongwei |
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| Institution: | 1 College of Science,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110161;2 College of Information and Electrical Engineering;Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110161) |
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| Abstract: | Based on grey system theory,the general GM（1,1）forecasting model for the growth of Japanese larch in Liaoning Province was set up and it has been proof-tested in model precision.Verified by use of the dates of the Japanese larch with age of 21 and 22,the results showed that it has been proved that the models were effective in practice.The Model-GM（1,1） on mean DBH comparative difference was 2.4%,3.69%,respectively.The Model-GM （1,1） on mean tree height comparative difference was 3.31%,4.69%,respectively.All of them were 1ess than 5%,which indicated that there were good results for estimation by forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory GM（1 1） forecasting model Japanese larch |
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