江苏省粮食生产与化肥使用环境安全研究

通过分析江苏省1979～2009年粮食产量与化肥使用量的关系,探讨江苏省化肥的环境安全使用量,提供利于环境安全的施肥措施。研究表明,江苏省1979～19891、990～19992、000～2009年3个不同时段的粮食产量和化肥使用量的相关系数分别是0.862、0.835、0.671,两者的相关性明显降低。31年来,江苏省粮食产量的年平均增长率是1.1%,化肥使用的年平均增长率是4.1%。目前,化肥使用量大大地超出了环境安全使用量。通过对比分析,认为江苏土地平均化肥使用量不宜超过600 kg/hm2,以后可以通过改进施肥措施提高粮食产量。

Research on the Relationship between Chemical Fertilization and Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

By analyzing the relationship between the grain production and the chemical fertilization amount in Jiangsu Province during 1979-2009,the amount of chemical fertilization was explored based on the environmental security,and the fertilization practices beneficial to environmental security were provided.The results showed that the correlation coefficients between grain production and chemical fertilization were 0.862,0.835 and 0.671 during the three periods of 1979-1989,1990-1999 and 2000-2009,which was obviously restricted by the diminishing return rate of lands.During the 31 years,the grain production in Jiangsu Province grew at an annual rate of 1.1%,while the fertilization amount increased at an annual rate of 4.1%.The present chemical fertilization amount was greatly above that required by environmental safety.Through comparative analysis,the average chemical fertilization amount in Jiangsu Province should not be above 600 kg/hm2,and the grain yield can be increased through the improved fertilization practices.