农牧户家庭种植业生产经营行为影响因素分析——以西藏典型县(市)为例

选用全国农村固定观察点西藏地区那曲、堆龙德庆、日喀则3县(市)的204个面板数据样本,采用线性模型和混合OLS模型以及随机效应模型回归估计方法,针对影响农牧户种植业生产行为的因素进行了系统分析。研究表明,"外出打工人员数量"、"家庭劳动力数量"、"年末拥有生产性固定资产原值"、"是否拥有农业机械"等家庭禀赋因素对于家庭的总播种面积具有正向影响,理论上预测的内部因素禀赋效应成立;"粮食均价"与"是否出售"这两个因素的乘积具有显著的影响作用,实证结果证实外部因素中价格的替代效应大于收入效应。

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Farmers' Operating Behavior in Farming

This paper uses 204 panel data samples from the national rural area observation stations—Nagchu,Duilongdeqing,Shigatse in Tibet.The regression estimation methods used in the paper include linear model,pooled Ordinary Least Squares model and random effects model.The paper systematically analyzes different factors relating to farmers’ operating behavior in farming.The main conclusions of this paper include: "number of household labor","number of labor working outside","original value of fixed assets for production at the end of year" and "whether or not the household possesses agricultural machineries" have positive effect on the total sown areas,predicts in theory that the endowment effect of internal factors exists.The product of "average grain price" and "whether grain is sold or not" has significant impact on total sown areas,we can explain this variable through substitution effect and income effect,the substitution effect of price is larger than the income effect.