| 基于时间序列的大型灌区日退水量预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵新宇.基于时间序列的大型灌区日退水量预测模型研究[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(16):9169-9171. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵新宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用时序图和自相关图相结合的方法,对大型灌区的日退水量时间序列进行了分析,建立了灌区日退水量时间序列ARIMA模型,并以宁夏青铜峡灌区为例进行了实证研究,取得了较为精确的结果,为灌区退水量的准确预测提供了理论依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 日退水量 时间序列 预测模型 |
Research on the Prediction Model of Daily Water Recession in Large Irrigation Areas Based on Time Series |
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| ZHAO Xin-yu.Research on the Prediction Model of Daily Water Recession in Large Irrigation Areas Based on Time Series[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2012,40(16):9169-9171. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xin-yu |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Xin-yu(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210098) |
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| Abstract: | The timing diagram and self-correlation diagram were combined to analyze the time series of daily water recession in large irrigation areas,and then an ARIMA model was constructed.A case study was conducted in Qingtongxia irrigation area of Qinghai and accurate results were achieved,which provided theoretical basis for the accurate prediction of water recession in irrigation area. |
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| Keywords: | Daily water recession Time series Prediction model |
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