甘肃临夏高寒地区春玉米螟动态气候预测模型

利用临夏地区1990-2007年的气温、降水、日照等气象资料,采用数理统计及多元回归方法,分析高寒地区干旱和阴湿两种不同气候背景下玉米螟生成的主要气候影响因子,按不同气候种植区,建立玉米螟动态气候预测模式。经检验,临夏地区玉米螟的发生与当地的气象条件有直接的关系,且玉米螟发生期早期和晚期预测准确率达70%以上,效果良好。

The Model of Climate Prediction Dynamic of Corn Borer in High Cold Regions in Linxia of Gansu Province

Based on meteorological data including temperature, precipitation and sunshine in Linxia Prefecture in 1990-2000, using the multiple regression method, the present paper analyzed the main meteorological factors resulted in outbreak of the corn borer under two kinds of different climate background, e.i., drought and dank in the alpine area. The model for prediction of corn borer population dynamics was established according to different climate planting areas. After testing the model, it was confirmed that occurrence of the corn borer had a direct relationship with the local climate condition, and accurate rate of predicting the early and late occurrence of the insects reached to more than 70%.