包虫病传播的数学模型及控制策略研究

通过对包虫病流行现状和传播机理的分析，选择适当的参数，利用动力学方法构建包虫病在人畜之间传播的数学模型，分析影响疾病传播和控制的关键因素。结果得到了决定疾病传播与否的基本再生数，证明了当基本再生数小于1时疾病将会消除，当基本再生数大于1时疾病将变成一种地方病。利用收集和估计的参数对模型进行了数值仿真，分析比较了感染系数的敏感性，对两种不同的控制措施进行了比较，得到了将两者结合是更好的防控措施。本研究构建的模型能够很好的反映影响包虫病传播的关键因素，为进一步制定控制策略提供参考依据。

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AND CONTROLLING OF ECHINOCOCCOSIS SPREAD

Based on analysis of the epidemic situation and the spread mechanism of echinococcosis, appropriate parameters were selected. The mathematical model of echinococcosis spreading between human beings and livestocks was established by using dynamics methods. The key factors influencing on spread and control of the disease were analyzed. The basic reproductive number was obtained which decides the disease spread or not. If the basic reproductive number was smaller than 1, echinococcosis would be eradicated. If the basic reproductive number was bigger than 1, echinococcosis would become a kind of endemic diseases. The model was simulated numerically using collected and estimated parameters, and the sensitivity of the infection coefficient was analyzed. Two different control measures were compared, and the results indicated that the combination would be better for prevention and control of measures. The model constructed in this research demonstrated the key factors which could influence on spread of echinococcosis, and might be helpful for further establishment of control strategy.