基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的农业自然灾害对农户家庭福利的实证影响研究

为了估计农业自然灾害对农户家庭福利的影响效应,基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据库调研数据,运用倾向得分匹配模型与广义倾向得分匹配法的剂量-反应函数模型,分别研究了农业自然灾害以及灾害数量变化对农户家庭福利的影响效果。结果表明:所有样本农户家庭的家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出以及家庭农业生产经营投资均遭受到了农业自然灾害的负面影响,且农业自然灾害分别在1%、5%、1%的显著性水平上使得农户家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出、家庭农业生产经营投资平均减少0.498万、0.143万、0.002万元,说明农业自然灾害不仅对农户家庭纯收入有显著的负面漏出效应,而且也对农户家庭的生活消费行为和农业生产经营的投资行为有明显的抑制效应,且农业自然灾害对农户家庭纯收入与家庭生活消费支出的负面影响相对较为强烈。随着农业自然灾害数量的不断增多,农户家庭纯收入、家庭生活消费支出与家庭农业生产经营投资均呈现出了不断下降的趋势,表明农业自然灾害强度与农户家庭福利的损失程度存在一致性。

An Empirical Impact Study of Agricultural Natural Disasters on Peasant Household Welfare Based on CFPS Data

In order to estimate the influence effect of agricultural natural disasters on peasant household welfare,based on the survey data of Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)database,the propensity score matching model and the dosis-response function model of the generalized tendency score matching method were used to study the influence effect of agricultural natural disaster on peasant household welfare.The results showed that the peasant household net income,household living consumption expenditure and household agricultural production and management investment of all the samples had all been negatively affected by the agricultural natural disaster.And the agricultural natural disaster significantly reduced peasant household net income by an average of 4.98 thousand yuan at the 1%level,the household living consumption expenditure by an average of 1.43 thousand yuan at the 5% level,and the household agricultural production and management investment by an average of 0.02 thousand yuan at the 1%level,which showed that the agricultural natural disaster not only had a significant negative leakage effect on household net income,but also had a significant inhibitory effect on household living consumption behavior and agricultural production and management investment behavior,and the negative effects of agricultural natural disasters on household net income and household consumption expenditure were relatively strong.With the increasing number of the agricultural natural disasters,the peasant household net income,household living consumption expenditure and household agricultural production and management investment have all shown a declining trend,which shows that the intensity of agricultural natural disasters is consistent with the loss degree of peasant household welfare.