中国经济增长与耕地资源变化计量分析

经济发展与耕地保护一直是决策者两难的选择,其传统假说大都建立在发展与保护矛盾不断激化的基础之上,该文基于国内外耕地变化轨迹的判断,提出新的研究假说:经济增长与耕地变化存在Logistic曲线关系,并选择全国数据进行实证检验。结果表明:国外(区域)经济发展在工业化、城市化由初级阶段过渡到高级阶段过程中,对建设占用耕地需求的强烈程度先增强后减弱,整个过程类似于Logistic曲线假说。中国不同阶段对比发现,1988-2003年间中国人均经济增长与耕地资源变化具有较为一致波动特征致,2003年以后两者波动出现明显脱钩或分歧。1988-2008年间的全国各省实证结果显示,除上海、广西等8省份无法通过F检验外,其余省份均能验证研究假说,在2002年全国人均国内生产总值8759.2元,是耕地变化加速减少向减速减少的拐点,2009年后数年耕地规模总量不应小于121.7万km2,不同区域耕地变化拐点和规模下限差别较大。研究结论能够为中国耕地保护和公共政策调整提供科学依据和直接参考。

Quantitative analysis of relationship between economy growth and cultivated land change in China

According to traditional hypothesis that contradiction between economy development and land protection is increasingly intense, a new hypothesis that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land changing can be expressed as Logistic curve based on the analysis of change of cultivated land at home and abroad. And then an empirical study was carried out using the national data. Results showed that during the period when the economic growth at abroad transformed from the primary stage to advanced stage in industrialization and urbanization process, the intensity of demand for cultivated land occupied by construction firstly increased and then decreased, which was similar to the Logistic curve. Comparison of different stages in China indicated that per capital economic growth and cultivated land changes had a consistent wave from 1998 to 2003, but then had an inconsistent wave after 2003. Empirical results showed that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land changing in most provinces could pass the F test, and demonstrate the hypothesis at provincial level between 1988 and 2008 except for 8 provinces. The year 2002 with per capital GDP of 8759.2 Yuan was an inflection point at which the cultivated land changed from accelerated reduction to decelerated reduction. The total cultivated land amounts should not be less than 1.217×106 km2 after 2009. The inflection points and the limit of cultivated land scales had big differences in different regions. The research provides a scientific basis and direct reference for cultivated land protection and public policy adjustments in China.