基于粮食安全与生态安全的省域耕地休耕规模测算

借鉴增量城镇用地区域配置的方法和原理,运用最小人均耕地面积模型、趋势预测法及熵权法,基于粮食安全与生态安全测算中国31个省份(直辖市、自治区)休耕耕地规模.结果表明:基于粮食安全与生态安全的中国31个省份(直辖市、自治区)可休耕耕地规模为1 690.73万hm2,各省(直辖市、自治区)耕地生态安全及休耕规模差异明显,休耕规模在空间上呈现出西北、沿海地区休耕规模大,西南、东北地区规模较小的分布格局.研究既突破了仅从宏观层面及粮食安全视角研究休耕规模的局限性,丰富和完善了探究耕地休耕规模的视角和方法,又为我国休耕规模分配和确定提供了科学依据及理论指导,有利于实现耕地休耕效益的最大化.

Measurement of Fallowing Scale of Provincial Cultivated Land Based on Food Security and Ecological Safety

According to the methods and principles of regional allocation of newly increased construction land in urban areas, and adopting the minimum area of per capita cultivated land model, the trend analysis approach and the entropy weight method, this study measures the fallowing scale of provincial cultivated land of China based on food security and ecological security. The results show that the nationwide cultivated land fallowing scale based on food security and ecological safety is 1 690.73×10⁴ hm²; that the ecological security and the cultivated land fallow scale are significantly different among different provinces; and that the fallowing scale exhibits a spatial pattern of "large in the northwest and the coastal areas of the country and smaller in the southwest and northeast areas". This study estimates the cultivated land fallowing scale based on food security and ecological safety; it not only breaks through the limitations of studying fallowing scale only from the perspective of national level or food security, enriches the perspective and methods of exploring cultivated land fallowing scale, but also provides a scientific evidence and theoretical direction for the allocation of cultivated land fallowing scale in China, which is beneficial for achieving the maximum of cultivated land fallowing effectiveness.