塔里木河干流区人工绿洲系统发展水平研究

人口、耕地系统是干旱地区人工绿洲系统的两个关键子系统,其发展水平反映了人工绿洲的发展水平。塔里木河干流区人工绿洲系统的发展水平决定着塔里木河地区的可持续发展状态。以地均产值(由地均粮食产值、地均棉花产值及地均其他经济作物产值组成)为反映耕地生产力的指标,测度影响塔里木河干流上游、中游和下游地区耕地生产力的因素;以粮食人口承载力和耕地压力指数为指标,分析该地区人工绿洲系统发展水平。研究认为:1988～2007年,塔里木河下游地区的人类不合理活动,对干流区绿洲系统的可持续发展影响较大,表现在人口和耕地增加过快、种植结构不合理、粮食安全问题、耕地压力不断增加等方面。因此,塔里木河干流区的可持续发展不仅要关注上游和中游地区耕地开发利用的问题,更要关注与调控下游地区人口、耕地系统的合理发展。严格控制下游的人口和耕地面积扩张是塔里木河干流区可持续发展的根本;以粮食生产满足自给需求为前提,建立以棉花生产为主,兼顾粮食安全的种植业结构,是塔里木河干流区耕地系统持续产出的优良模式。

Developmental level of artificial oasis system in Tarim River Mainstream Area

Population and cultivated lands are the key sub-systems of artificial oasis system in arid areas. Their levels of development reflect the state of artificial oases. The state of the artificial oasis system in Tarim River Mainstream Area (TRMA) largely influences sustainable development of the entire Tarim region. Per-cultivated land production, which composes of food, cotton and other economic crops, was used to estimate land production in the region in this paper. Next, the factors that affect total cultivated land production in TRMA were measured. Food population carrying capacity and cultivated land pressure indices were used to assess the level of development of artificial oasis system in TRMA. Studies show that irrational human activities in the lower reaches of Tarim River heavily influence sustainable development of oasis system in TRMA during 1988~2007. Rapid increases in population and cultivated lands, irrational planting structures, unsafe food problems and mounting pressure on cultivated lands are the determinant factors of oasis systems in TRMA. More attention should therefore be given not only to rational cultivated land utility in the upper and middle reaches of TRMA, but also to population growth and rational development of cultivated land in the lower reaches of TRMA. It is essential to control population and cultivated land growth strictly in the lower reaches of TRMA for the sustainable development of TRMA. And the optimizing pattern of sustainable product is to develop cotton plant mainly and give consideration to crop product on the base of crop safety in TRMA.