Development and assessment of a gap-type model to predict the effects of climate change on forests based on spatial forest data

A gap-model was modified in order to utilise ground-true forest data to predict the effect of climate change on forests in Finland. The model's resonse to climate change was evaluated by using test scenarios of changing temperature and precipitation in Finland. Model computations indicated that in Southern Finland conifers, Norway spruce in particular, suffered from rapidly increasing temperature (0.5°C in a decade), but Scots pine derived a small benefit from a temperature increase of 0.1°C in a decade. Pendula birch profited by increasing temperature. In Northern Finland all tree species (Scots pine, Norway spruce, Pendula birch and Pubescent birch) used in simulations increased their stand volume and total production due to increased temperature. Precipitation changes had only little effect on stand volume and total production of trees on sites with coarse moraine as soil texture. The effect of soil texture on model performance was examined at a southern site under current climate using moraine, sand and silt as soil textures. Stand volume and total production of coniferous trees remained at a lower level on sand than on moraine soils or on silt. Response of birches to soil texture was similar to that of the conifers, but differences in total production between soil textures remained smaller.