福建省1987-2013年林业主要气象灾害与林业经济灰色关联分析

基于福建省1987-2013年的气象灾害受灾面积(主要有水灾、旱灾、风雹灾、冷冻灾)和林业产值等资料,运用传统灰色关联度法和基于距离分析的改进灰色关联度法分析林业气象灾害对林业经济的影响。研究结果显示,传统的灰色关联法和改进的灰色关联法结果具有一致性,各主要灾害对林业经济影响的大小顺序均为水灾 > 旱灾 > 冷冻灾 > 风雹灾,但基于改进的灰色关联法中各关联程度有所提高,且综合影响度提高了0.4%。文章还据此提出各种气象灾害的防御治理建议,从而为福建省的防灾减灾工作提供基础的理论指导意义。

Grey-relation Analysis Between Forestry Meteorological Disasters and Forestry Economy from 1987 to 2013in Fujian Province

Based on the data on the area of meteorological disasters including flood, drought, wind and hailstones and frozen, and the forestry output from 1987 to 2013 in Fujian Province, the study adopted traditional grey-relation meth-od and improved it on the basis of distance analysis to analyze the impact of forestry meteorological disasters on forest-ry economy. It concludes that the traditional grey-relation method and improved grey-relation method are consistent in results, and the impact of main disasters on forestry output is ordered by flood, drought, frozen, wind and hailstones, but the degree of correlation is found to be enhanced if with improved grey-relation method, and the degree of compre-hensive effect has increased by 0.4% at that. According to the results, some proposals are offered for preventing the various meteorological disasters, which provide elementary theoretical guide for the disaster prevention and mitigation in Fujian Province.