中国粮食产量虚拟变量模型研究

选取粮食产量为被解释变量,粮食面积、农业劳动力、农业机械总动力、灌溉面积、化肥用量、成灾面积及2个虚拟变量(D1、D2)为解释变量。经过多元回归,获得了拟合度较好的中国粮食产量虚拟变量模型,其预测产量历年平均相对误差为3.02%,说明该模型预测性较好。从分析结果看,影响中国粮食生产的主要生产要素是化肥用量和农业劳动力,这说明我国的粮食生产尚处在由“粗放型生产”向“集约型生产”过渡时期,适度增加化肥和农业劳动力的投入对粮食生产有一定的促进作用。

Visional Variable Model of Grain Yield in China

The proportion of crop grain in food in China is high,therefore the grain yield and grain production capability are very important in food security.However,a lot of factors affect grain yield and there are quantity variable and visional variable.In this paper,the grain crops,employed persons,power of agriculture machinery,irrigated area,application of chemical fertilizers and visional variable were self-variable.Grain yield is variably affected.By regression analysis,the visional variable model of China grain yield was put forward.The function of this model was proved well in practice and the average relative error of yield forecasts in many years was 3.02 %.The consumption of chemical fertilizers and employed persons were principally affecting factors of grain production in China,which indicated the grain production was in the interim time of "extensive production" to "intensive production",and the grain yield may be increased through the proper increase of chemical fertilizers and employed persons.