| 林下可燃物含水率预测的一个多项式气象模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶更新,叶希莹. 林下可燃物含水率预测的一个多项式气象模型[J]. 东北林业大学学报, 2011, 39(9): 65-68 |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶更新 叶希莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林省通化市气象局,通化,134001;吉林省通化市气象局,通化,134001 |
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| 基金项目： | 吉林省森林防火气象服务系统项目支持 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用通化市森林可燃物6个观测点的观测资料,分析了林下可燃物含水率与气象要素之间的关系,结果表明,含水率与最高气温、前3d累积降水量、蒸发量、日照时数有很好的联系,根据相关分析的结果分别对不同测点建立了含水率的线性和多项式气象模型,对2种模型进行了比较,发现在相同的信度水平检验下,多项式模型比线性模型与实况的相关性有了很...
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| 关 键 词： | 可燃物 含水率 相关分析 多项式模型 护林防火 |
A Meteorological Multinomial Model for Predicting Forest Fuel Moisture |
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| Ye Gengxin,Ye Xiying. A Meteorological Multinomial Model for Predicting Forest Fuel Moisture[J]. Journal of Northeast Forestry University, 2011, 39(9): 65-68 |
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| Authors: | Ye Gengxin Ye Xiying |
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| Affiliation: | (Tonghua Meteorological Bureau of Jilin Province,Tonghua 134001,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Relationships between forest fuel moisture and meteorological factors were analyzed according to the observation data of forest fuels in six observation points of Tonghua City.Results showed that moisture content had good correlations with maximum temperature,three-day cumulative precipitation,evaporation,and sunshine hours.Linear and multinomial models of moisture content were established according to the results of correlation analysis of moisture contents in different measuring points.At the same confidence level in reliability testing,the relationship predicted by the multinomial model had a higher correlation with the actual situation compared with the linear model.Adjusted coefficient of multiple determination increased by 0.1937 averagely,and the absolute error was reduced by 30.368%.Therefore,the multinomial model is more reasonable than the linear model in describing the relationship between meteorological elements and forest fuel moisture content. |
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| Keywords: | Forest fuels Moisture content Correlation analysis Multinomial models Forest fire prevention |
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