增加家蚕微粒子病母蛾抽样检查集团蛾数的探讨

在农村原蚕区不断扩大 ,蚕种检验批增多的情况下 ,研究在不影响检种质量的前提下减少检种工作量的抽样检查方法十分必要。提出了在家蚕微粒子病母蛾集团检查中接收概率的近似公式 ,以及增加集团母蛾数 ,减少镜检次数的设想。通过接收概率和平均检查次数的计算、计算机模拟、实际检查操作 ,以及与现行方法的比较 ,证明了接收概率的近似公式的适用性 ,同时也表明集团母蛾数为 6 0蛾的抽样方案与现行集团母蛾数为 30蛾的抽样方案的生产方风险和使用方风险基本相同 ,而平均检查次数大大减少 ,从而证明了其可行性。在检验错误较多情况下 ,这种方法的风险也较大 ,使用时应谨慎。

Discussion About Increasing the Group Size of Pebrine Mother Moths Sampling Inspection in the Silkworm

With the parent silkworm rearing area enlarging and silkworm eggs inspection lots increasing, it is essential to adopt the sampling inspection plan of decreasing the workload of pebrine inspection on the condition that the quality of pebrine inspection is not reduced. The design is put forward that the numbers of microscopic examination are reduced by the formulae of probability of acceptance to the group of pebrine inspection of mother moths in the silkworm and increasing the group of moth size. The applicability of the approximate formulae of probability of acceptance is proved by the calculation of the probability of acceptance and average sample number, computer simulation, actual sampling inspection and the comparison with the present method. At the same time, it is made clear that the producer's risk and the consumer's risk are same on the sampling plan of the group of moth size of sixty and the present group of moth size of thirty, and the ASN largely decreases. Consequently the feasibility of the present method is proved. It is pointed out that the more the mistakes in the inspection are, the more the risks of the present method are. So we must be cautious of use of this method.