基于生态足迹的宁夏生态环境可持续发展研究

基于修正后的生态足迹模型测度了宁夏2000—2013年生态足迹和生态承载力的变化趋势，引入足迹深度和足迹广度模型，探讨宁夏自然资本利用状况，加入万元GDP生态足迹、生态足迹多样性指数和发展能力指数作为补充，对宁夏的可持续发展能力进行测算。结果表明:（1）研究期内，宁夏全区人均生态足迹由1.601 8增长到2.915，人均生态承载力由1.175平稳下降到1.005，生态赤字增长了2.58倍，宁夏的生态承载力已超负荷；（2）人均足迹深度从1.833上升到3.294，人均足迹广度维持在0.608 5～0.852 9，资本流量已经不能满足人们日常消耗，资本存量的利用已然成为宁夏社会经济发展的必需。2013年，宁夏需要约3.29倍的国土面积才能维持自身的发展。（3）万元GDP生态足迹由3.009降到0.743 6，发展能力指数由2.630 7上升到4.748 2，表明宁夏的自然资本利用效率正逐步提高，具备一定发展空间，但是生态足迹多样性指数数值较低，说明宁夏的自然资本利用方式不均衡，生态系统处于不稳定状态。未来应通过加快产业结构升级、降低能源消耗率、提高耕地利用效率、合理规划城镇土地利用等方式来优化自然资本利用状况，减少生态环境压力。

Study on Ecological Environment Sustainable Development in Ningxia Based on Theory of Ecological Footprint

The trend of ecological footprint and carrying capacity of Ningxia from 2000 to 2013 were calculated based on the calibrated ecological footprint model. The model of footprint depth and footprint size were included, the utilization of natural capital of Ningxia was studied, ecological footprint of GDP per 10 000 Yuan was added, and ecological footprint diversity index and development capacity index were supplemented to assess the sustainable development ability of Ningxia. The results showed that: (1) during the study period, the ecological footprint per capita in Ningxia increased from 1.601 8 to 2.915, the ecological carrying capacity per capita steadily declined from 1.175 to 1.005, and the ecological deficit increased 2.58 times, which showed that Ningxia’s ecological carrying capacity had been overloaded; (2) footprint depth per capita grew from 1.833 to 3.294, footprint size per capita ranged from 0.608 5 to 0.852 9, capital flow had been unable to meet people’s daily consumption, the utilization of capital stock had already become necessary for social and economic development of Ningxia. By the end of 2013, Ningxia need about 3.29 times of land area to maintain its own development; (3) ecological footprint GDP per 10 000 Yuan decreased from 3.009 to 0.743 9, development capacity index rose from 2.630 7 to 4.748 2, which indicated that Ningxia’s natural capital use was improved and it had a certain development potential. However, the low ecological footprint diversity index showed that natural capital utilization was not balanced and the ecosystem was still in an unstable state. In the future, industrial structure upgrading should be speeded up, energy consumption should be reduced, and efficiency of cultivated land should be improved. Reasonable planning of urban land use and other ways to optimize natural capital use should be implemented to reduce ecological environment pressure.