玛河流域山区冰雪覆被变化与驱动因素的关联性分析

对1977—2013年Landsat影像运用监督分类进行解译获取冰雪覆被信息，并运用回归分析法对其驱动因素进行分析。结果表明:（1）冰雪覆被消融面积为2 372.92 km²，年均消融速率为2.1%。冰雪覆被斑块由大面积破碎，转向小面积斑块消失。（2）驱动因素中气温、人口、GDP在0.01水平上显著相关。冰雪覆被变化趋势滞后于气温变化趋势13～15 a，滞后于GDP变化趋势5 a，与人口变化呈非线性相关。驱动因素中坡度、坡向的影响为冰雪覆被分布趋于缓坡且多分布在西坡，雪线高度也逐年上升。（3）驱动因素与冰雪消融关联强度的顺序为:气温>人口> GDP，气温为主要影响因素。

Snow Cover Change Driving Mechanism and Coping Strategies in Manas River Basin

The driving factors of ice and snow cover are analyzed based on 1977 to 2013 Landsat image by using supervised classification interpretation for ice and snow cover information, and using the regression analysis. The results show that:(1) the area of melting snow and ice cover is 2 372.92 km², an average annual rate is 2.1%, ice and snow cover patches with segments at large scale shift, to disappearance of small patches; (2) driving factors of temperature, population, GDP are significantly correlated at the level of 0.01, ice and snow cover change lags behind temperature for 13 to 15 years, lags behind the GDP change for 5 years, is nonlinearly related to population change, the gradient and aspect of slope drive ice and snow cover to distribute in gentle slope and west-facing slope, snow line height also increases year by year; (3) the order of the driving factors associated with snow and ice melt strength is as follows:temperature > population > GDP, temperature is regarded as the main influencing factor.