农产品物流对农村经济发展影响支持研究

针对我国农村经济发展现状,选取了表征我国农村经济水平的指标体系,以2003-2010年农村经济发展指标时间序列作为样本区间,利用熵权法、模糊物元分析法综合测评了农村经济水平；基于VAR模型,分别进行协整分析、ECM、脉冲响应及方差分解,分析了各年农村经济发展水平与农产品物流发展之间的关系.结果表明:我国农村经济发展与农产品物流发展之间存在长期协整关系,农村物流发展能够有效推动农村经济进步,且随着时期推移扰动冲击和贡献比重逐渐趋稳.

Support study of agricultural product logistics impact on agricultural economic development

Based on status of development of agricultural economic, this papder selected index system that can represent the level ofrural economic, selected time series of indicators from 2003 to 2010, and evaluated the level of development of rural economic by using entropy weight method and fuzzy matter-element analysis. Based on VAR Model, this paper analyzed the relationship between the level of economic in rural areas and the development of agricultural products logistics by using cointegration analysis, ECM, impulse response and variance decomposition. Results showed that long-term cointegration relationship existed between the level of rural economic and the development of agricultural products logistics. Rural economic could effectively promote development of agricultural product logistics, and as the period goes on, disturbance impact and contribution would gradually stabilized.