| 基于人工神经网络的辽宁省粮食产量模型预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁铁山,郭冬冬,温季,董汝瑞.基于人工神经网络的辽宁省粮食产量模型预测研究[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(35):20429-20430,20440. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁铁山 郭冬冬 温季 董汝瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]辽宁省黑山县农业综合开发办公室,辽宁黑山121400 [2]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453003 [3]新乡职业技术学院,河南新乡453006 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用辽宁省1983～2008年粮食产量数据,建立了粮食产量预测的3层BP网络模型,网络拓扑结构为6-6-1。用此模型对作物产量进行预测,并与多元线性回归预测结果进行比较。结果表明,人工神经网络预测的最大误差为1.57%,平均误差为0.79%,网络预测精度为0.97,说明人工神经网络模型具有较高的预测精度和较强的泛化能力,为粮食产量预测提供了一条新途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 辽宁省 粮食产量 人工神经网络 预测 |
Research on Model Prediction of Grain Yield of Liaoning Province Based on Artificial Neural Network |
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| Institution: | DING Tie-shan et al(Heishan Office of Agricultural Comprehensive Development of Liaoning Province,Heishan,Liaoning 121400) |
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| Abstract: | By using the data about grain yield of Liaoning Province in 1983～2008,the 3-layer BP network model was established for prediction of grain yield and its network topological structure was 6-6-1.This model was used to predict crop yield and the prediction results were compared with the results from prediction with multiple linear regression.The results showed that the maximum error,mean error and precision of prediction with artificial neural network were 1.57%,0.79% and 0.97 resp.,indicating that the model based on artificial neural network possessed higher prediction precision and generalization ability.It provided a new approach for prediction of grain yield. |
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| Keywords: | Liaoning Province Grain yield Artificial neural network Prediction |
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