基于状态空间模型的耕地生态安全评价--以江西省鄱阳县为例

耕地生态安全问题已经成为关乎国计民生和社会可持续发展的国家战略问题,为促进区域耕地生态系统健康发展以及为缓解人地矛盾提供一定的科学参考。从自然因素、经济因素、社会因素3个方面选取18个指标构建了评价指标体系,采用变异系数法和熵值法确定权重,运用状态空间模型对江西省鄱阳县2008-2017年耕地生态安全进行了定量评价和分析。结果表明:2008-2017年鄱阳县耕地生态安全水平总体呈上升趋势,耕地生态安全情况逐渐改善。就各子系统而言,自然因素子系统2008-2011年呈波动下降趋势,在2011年达到谷底,2012-2017年呈上升趋势,在2015年达到峰值;经济因素子系统连续波动,呈大"V"形势,在2010年达到峰值并在2012年达到谷底;社会因素子系统处于持续波动状态,呈稳步上升趋势。构建的状态空间模型能准确地评价当地耕地生态安全等级,说明该模型在耕地生态安全评价中有一定的适用性。

Evaluation on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land in Poyang County of Jiangxi Province Based on State Space Model

The ecological security of cultivated land has become a national strategic issue concerning the national economy, people′s livelihood and sustainable development of society. The analysis and evaluation of cultivated land ecological security of Poyang County, Jiangxi Province can provide a scientific reference for promoting the healthy development of regional cultivated land ecosystem and alleviating the contradiction between people and land. From the three aspects of natural factors, economic factors and social factors, 18 indicators were selected to construct the evaluation index system. The coefficient of variation and entropy method were used to determine the weight, and the state space model method was used to quantitatively evaluate and analyze the ecological security of cultivated land in Poyang County from 2008 to 2017. The results show that the ecological security level of cultivated land in Poyang County presented the the rising trend from 2008 to 2017, and the ecological security of cultivated land was gradually improving. As far as each subsystem was concerned, the subsystem of natural factor had a fluctuating downward trend in 2008-2011, reaching the bottom in 2011, showing an upward trend in 2012-2017, and peaking in 2015;the subsystem of economic factor was continuously fluctuating, showing a the V-shaped situation, reached the peak in 2010, and reached its bottom in 2012;the subsystem of social factor was in a state of continuous fluctuations, showing a steady upward trend. The constructed state space model can accurately evaluate the ecological security level of local cultivated land, indicating that the model has certain applicability in the ecological security evaluation of cultivated land.