ENSO影响下陕甘宁蒙接壤区暴雨灾害风险评价

选取致灾因子危险性、承载体易损性、区域防灾抗灾能力三个因子，从宏观、中观、微观三个尺度对ENSO影响下陕甘宁蒙接壤区暴雨灾害的风险性进行了评价。研究表明:（1）研究区暴雨灾害在宏观、中观、微观尺度上都表现出与拉尼娜事件有很强的相关性；（2）暴雨灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、防灾抗灾能力在空间分布上有很强的区域差异性，暴雨灾害的致灾因子危险性与降水的分布特征表现出了一致性，呈明显的自东南向西北逐渐降低的带状分布特征；承灾体易损性最高的区域主要在腾格里沙漠的景泰、阿拉善左旗和甘肃民勤地区；防灾抗灾能力最高的区域主要在陕西的长武、延安、吴旗，甘肃的平凉；（3）受降水特点及地形因素的影响，暴雨灾害风险最高的区域主要在毛乌素沙地的榆林、横山、绥德，黄土丘陵沟壑区的西峰、平凉、长武等地区。

Risk Assessment on Rainstorm Disaster Under the Influence of ENSO in the Border Area of Shaanxi,Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia

From three aspects:hazards risk, vulnerability of carrier, disaster prevention and resilience, we evaluated the rainstorm disaster under the influences of ENSO in the border area of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from the macro, meso and micro scales. The results show that:(1) northwest fragile zone rainstorm disasters and Lanina events showed a strong correlation at macro, meso, micro scales; (2) the hazard risk, vulnerability of carrier, disaster prevention and resilience have a strong regional differences, the hazard risk and distribution of rainfall showed a consistent feature, it gradually reduced and showed obvious zonal distribution features from southeast to northwest; the regions with the highest vulnerability of carrier mainly include the Tengger Desert of Jingtai, Alxa Left Banner and Minqin of Gansu; the highest regional in disaster prevention and resilience are Changwu, Yan’an, Wuqi and Pingliang; (3) because of rainfall characteristics and terrain factors, the highest risk areas of storm disaster are Yulin, Xifeng, Pingliang, Changwu and other areas.