Prediction of indirect selection for seed and forage yield of lucerne based on evaluation under spaced planting

Phenotypic selection under spaced planting is frequently used in forage species. This study aimed to compare the predicted efficiency of direct selection for lucerne seed or forage yield under dense planting with indirect selection based on the same traits or seed yield components evaluated under spaced planting. Sixteen genotypes randomly chosen from a representative sample of locally adapted germplasm were grown for two years as individual clones spaced at 75 cm (density =1.78 plants/m²) and in dense plots formed by one row of four clones spaced at 10 cm (density = 50 plants/m²) using a randomized complete block design with three replications. Indirect selection based on seed yield under spaced planting was just 19% less efficient than direct selection, owing to moderate genetic correlation between plant densities (r_g = 0.66) and somewhat higher broad‐sense heritability under spaced planting than under dense planting. The relative efficiency of indirect selection for seed yield in density based on individual seed yield components under spaced planting ranged from modest to very low and was always below 45%. The efficiency of indirect selection for dry matter yield based on yield response under spaced planting was moderate for total yield (64%) and very low for second‐year yield (32%) relative to direct selection.