气候条件对马铃薯产量的影响·产量预报模型研究

目的]研究气候条件对马铃薯产量的影响,并建立产量预报模型,用SPSS将历年马铃薯产量资料分离成气候产量和趋势产量,并对气候产量与气象因素进行进行相关性分析。结果]影响马铃薯产量的气象因素分为普遍性和区域性。普遍性因素包括上年秋季8～9月的水汽压或相对湿度、6月下旬～7月上旬及8月中旬降水量;区域性因素有1月降水、4月上旬～中旬的降水、5月水汽压。用逐步回归建立产量预报模型,拟合率较好。结论]此方法计算简单、预测时效长、预测准确率较高,为做好马铃薯种植业气象服务提供了保障。

Influence of Climate Conditions on Potato Yield and Studies on the Forecasting Model of Potato Yield

Objective]The aim was to research influence of climate conditions on potato yield and establish the forecasting model of potato yield.Method]SPSS（Statistical Package for the Social Sciences） was used to separate potato output into meteorological yield and tendency yield over the years,and analysis of the relation between potato climate yield and meteorological factors was carried out.Result]The result showed that affecting yield factor consisted of the universality and regional.The universality included vapour pressure or relative humidity of air in last August-September,precipitation in late June to early July and in mid-August;The regional is including precipitation in January and in early to mid April,vapour pressure of air in May.Prediction model about yield was established by using stepwise regression method,which qualified rates of fitting better quality.Conclusion]Because of its long effective period,high accuracy and simplicity to dalculate,the method provided a guarantee for weather service on the crop farming of potatoes.