基于EC集合预报产品的降水预报检验 |
| |
引用本文: | 斯琴,张旭,包福祥.基于EC集合预报产品的降水预报检验[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(7):162-167. |
| |
作者姓名: | 斯琴 张旭 包福祥 |
| |
作者单位: | 内蒙古自治区气象台,内蒙古自治区气象台,内蒙古自治区气候中心 |
| |
基金项目: | 内蒙古自治区自然科学“集合预报数值产品的超级集合预报方法研究”(2014BS0403);中国气象局预报员专项项目“内蒙古短时强降水预报指标研究”(CMAYBY2015-013)。 |
| |
摘 要: | 为了对EC集合预报产品的应用性能进行检验,笔者基于EC集合预报的概率匹配平均降水量、融合降水量以及中位数、众数和控制预报降水量等5 个产品,通过TS评分方法对内蒙古2014 年汛期降水过程预报进行检验。结果表明,各检验成员产品对过程的把握能力差异较大,集合预报对降水偏大的降水过程评分比较高,对暴雨以上量级降水的预报存在着较大的偏差,预报效果较差。平均TS评分结果表明,集合预报产品尤其是概率预报产品具有一定的参考价值,其次是控制预报和融合产品。
|
关 键 词: | 黄麻链霉菌NF0919菌株 黄麻链霉菌NF0919菌株 HPLC 稳定性 生物活性 |
收稿时间: | 2015/10/10 0:00:00 |
修稿时间: | 2016/1/25 0:00:00 |
Precipitation Forecasting Verification Based on EC Ensemble Prediction Products |
| |
Abstract: | The paper aims to test the application performance of EC ensemble prediction products. Based on the 5 products: probability of EC ensemble forecast to match average precipitation, fusion precipitation, median, mode and control forecast precipitation, and with the TS score method, the authors tested the precipitation forecast in flood season in Inner Mongolia in 2014. The results showed that differences existed among product’s ability to grasp the process, there was a high score on ensemble forecast of the precipitation process, for heavy rain and above, there was a large scale precipitation forecast deviation, the forecast effect was poorer. Average TS score results showed that the ensemble forecast products, especially the probability forecast, had certain reference value, the second was control forecast and fusion products. |
| |
Keywords: | Inner Mongolia EC ensemble prediction TS score rainfall in flood season |
本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录! |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国农学通报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|