| 陇东塬区冬小麦收获期预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 段金省. 陇东塬区冬小麦收获期预报[J]. 中国农业气象, 2007, 28(1): 17-20 |
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| 作者姓名： | 段金省 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州,730020;甘肃省西峰农业气象试验站 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对陇东塬区近35a来的气温资料和冬小麦生长发育资料分析,发现:一方面,由于气候变暖使陇东塬区冬小麦春季各发育期整体提前,从而使成熟期提前;另一方面,由于春末夏初气温偏高、降水偏少,高温持续时间长,加快了冬小麦生殖阶段的发育进程,发育期间隔天数缩短,也使冬小麦的成熟期提前。根据西峰农试站近11a来对陇东塬区冬小麦灌浆速度的测定结果,结合5-6月气象因子观测资料,建立了冬小麦成熟期预报模型,以预测当地冬小麦适宜收获期,预报结论与实际成熟期相吻合。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变暖 陇东塬区 冬小麦 成熟期 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-23 |
Harvest Prediction of Winter Wheat in East Gansu Province |
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| DUAN Jin-sheng. Harvest Prediction of Winter Wheat in East Gansu Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2007, 28(1): 17-20 |
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| Authors: | DUAN Jin-sheng |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020,China; 2. Xifeng Experiment Station of Agro-meteorological in Gansu Province |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between temperature data and winter wheat growth data in last 35 years in East Gansu Province was analyzed. The results showed that climate warming made winter wheat mature early, because it speeded up both vegetative growth stage of winter wheat in early spring and reproductive growth stage in early summer. For predicting optimum date of local winter wheat harvest and providing direction to winter wheat production, the harvest prediction model was established, according to the filling speed and observed climatic data from May to June in last 11 years from Xifeng agro-meteorological experiment station. The predicted result accorded with ripe stage of local winter wheat in reality. |
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| Keywords: | Climate warming East Gansu Province Winter wheat Ripe stage |
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