| 马尾松毛虫发生量的混沌检测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈绘画,徐志宏.马尾松毛虫发生量的混沌检测[J].中国森林病虫,2011,30(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈绘画 徐志宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 仙居县林业局,浙江,仙居,317300;浙江农林大学林业与生物技术学院,浙江,临安,311300
2. 浙江农林大学农业与食品科学学院,浙江,临安,311300 |
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| 基金项目： | 仙居县科技局“仙居县林业主要有害生物数值预报的研究”(200628) |
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| 摘 要： | 以非线性动力学为基础,通过时间序列分析和前馈网络模型建模的方法分析马尾松毛虫发生量的复杂性动态。前馈网络模型估计的最大Lyapunov指数为0.155 1,说明马尾松毛虫发生量序列存在混沌现象。马尾松毛虫当代的种群大小与前一代或前几代的种群大小密切相关,因而可用重构相空间的方法以前一代来预测下一代。
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| 关 键 词： | 马尾松毛虫 自相关函数 时间序列分析 混沌 非线性动力学模型 发生量 |
Chaos detection of Dendrolimus punctatus occurrence amount |
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| CHEN Huihua,XU Zhihong.Chaos detection of Dendrolimus punctatus occurrence amount[J].Forest Pest and Disease,2011,30(2). |
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| Authors: | CHEN Huihua XU Zhihong |
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| Institution: | CHEN Huihua,et al.(Xianju Forest Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Xianju 317300,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on nonlinear dynamics,time series analysis and feed forward network model were used to analyze the complex dynamics of Dendrolimus punctatus occurrence amount.Feed forward network model was used to estimate the largest Lyapunov exponent which was 0.155 1 indicating that the sequence of Dendrolimus punctatus occurrence amount had chaotic phenomena.The present generation and the previous generation or generations were closely correlated.So Dendrolimus punctatus could be forecasted by the method of recon... |
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| Keywords: | Dendrolimus punctatus auto-correlation function time series analysis chaos nonlinear dynamic model occurrence |
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