新疆天山北坡及阿尔泰山两大林区森林资源动态的研究

利用我区森林资源初、复查连清材料，对天山北坡及阿尔泰两大林区森林资源的消长动态变化和未来发展趋势进行了研究分析。结果表明，在初、复查期间，两大林区森林总蓄积有所增长，但森林质量一卜降，并发生结构性危机。预计在下一等间隔期内（１９８８～１９９６年），森林总蓄积将继续呈现增长趋势，但资源趋于大径级化和老龄化，生长率下降，枯损现象日趋严重，森林资源危机将进一步加深。

A Study on Dynamics of Forest Resources in the Tianshan Mountains and the Altay Mountains in Xinjiang

Two periodic data of continuous forest inventory in 1980 and 1988 were used to estimate current state and dynamics of forest resources in the Thashan Mountains and the Altay Mountains in this paper, then, utilizing the Model Markov, the change trend in the forest Resources was calculated. The result shows that, the total growing stock and volume of open wood increased. the stard growing stock decreased, the volume per hectare in stard and open wood increased, the area of forested land and open wood decreased, forest quality declined and the structural crisis of the forest resources has hoppend. It concentrately reflected that the following phenomenon become more serious day by day, such as the increase of the proportion of open crop. the lack of reserve resources, the degratation of resources and deterioration of forest growth, etc. The result predicted that, during 1988 1996, total growing stock will continuously tend to increase, but the resources will incline to be greater in diameter class and age, growth rate will decline, the mortality will becowe even more critical and the crisis of forest resources will fUture intensify.