新疆人均生态足迹的演变及其计量测算探析

运用生态足迹理论,计算出1984-2007年新疆的人均生态足迹,揭示新疆人均生态足迹随时间的变化规律;以1984-1995年的新疆人均生态足迹为基数,引入现阶段应用范围较广的时间序列预测模型(ARIMA模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型、线性回归模型)对新疆1996-2007年的人均生态足迹进行测算,并将各模型的预测结果与实际值进行比较,探讨出新疆人均生态足迹短期预测中的最佳模型,并借此最佳模型对新疆"十二五"人均生态足迹进行预测。结果表明,新疆人均生态足迹逐年持续上升,"十二五"时期人地矛盾将进一步加剧,集约节约利用资源是新疆可持续发展的必然趋势;将计量模型与生态足迹计算结合起来,能够弥补生态足迹理论中的静态性缺陷和预测性难题;ARIMA模型和灰色GM(1,1)模型是预测新疆人均生态足迹中较优的模型,ARIMA模型更适宜短期预测。

Evolution of Per Capita Ecological Footprint and Discussion and Analysis on Measurement and Calculation in Xinjiang

Based on the ecological footprint（EF） theory,this paper studies the per-capita ecological footprint of Xinjiang in 1984-2007 and reveals its change law with time goes on.The per capita ecological footprint of Xinjiang in 1996-2007 is also figured out by some popular time-series predicted models,like the ARIMA Model,GM（1,1） Model,and Linear Regression Model,with the basic data of per capita ecological footprint in 1984-1995.By comparing the prediction results with the real value,this paper comes up with the best model for the short-term prediction of per capita ecological footprint of Xinjiang.The results are as follows,the per capita ecological footprint of Xinjiang increases year by year,and has risen much faster since the 21 century,which may aggravate the contradiction between human and land,especially in the ＂12th Five-year Plan＂ period.Therefore,conservation and intensive utilization of resources is the best way to ensure the sustainable development of Xinjiang.The combination of econometric models and ecological footprint can remedy a static defect of ecological footprint theory and forecasting difficult problems.ARIMA and GM（1,1） are the better forecasting model of per capita ecological footprint of Xinjiang,and ARIMA will work better in the short-term forecasting.