稻瘟病预测——周期分析方法

根据江西省婺源县稻瘟病(Pyricularia oryzae Cav.)的历年发生程度资料,运用方差分析方法寻找其显著周期,并提取其周期数组,重复这一过程,直至没有显著周期时为止,共提取出4个显著周期的周期数组。将这些周期数组外延和叠加后,进行拟合检验,结果表明,周期分析方法适用于拟合并预测婺源县稻瘟病流行的年变化情况。于是对该县的稻瘟病发生程度进行了多年预测,其中最初两年的预测结果已得到证实,表明用周期分析方法进行预测是可行的。最后讨论了在稻瘟病流行的年度变化过程中造成其多重周期性的可能原因,及用周期分析方法进行稻瘟病预测的条件和特点。

FORECASTING RICE BLAST BY PERIOD ANALYSIS

Variance analysis was used to find out the significant period fromhistorical data of rice blast(Pyricularia oryzae Cavara) in Wuyuan County.Periodic arrays were then taken out from the data.The method wasrepeated until no significant period can be found.Four periodic arrayshad been taken out.Then these periodic arrays were extended and su-perimposed to fit the data.Tests showed that the fitness was very goodand the method was qualified to forecast rice blast in Wuyuan County.So a six-year forecast was made.The first two years' forecasts hadbeen verified,which showed that period analysis was feasible for riceblast forecast. The possible causes of the multiple periodicity in rice blast's se-verity variation with year,the condition and feature of using periodanalysis to forecast rice blast were also discussed.