2014年国内外奶业市场形势及后期展望

2014年1—10月,国内原料奶收购价格总体呈下行走势,鲜奶零售价格高位平稳运行,原料奶收购价格和鲜奶零售价格均高于2013年同期水平,奶粉零售价格稳中略涨,国产奶粉涨幅快于进口奶粉。受国内消费需求刺激,乳品进口继续大幅增加,奶粉进口国家仍以新西兰为主,但是从新西兰进口奶粉的比重明显下降。全球乳制品供应增加,俄罗斯禁止进口,需求下降,国际市场乳制品价格持续下滑。预计国际乳制品价格继续低迷,乳制品进口量则进一步增加,这使得国内原料奶收购价格将面临下行压力。

Dairy Products Markets at Home and Abroad in 2014 and Their Prospects

The domestic purchase price of raw milk turned downward, while the retail price of fresh milk was stable at high level, and the two prices were both higher than the same period of 2013. The retail price of milk powder rose steadily, and especially the price of domestic milk powder rose faster than those of imports from January to October of 2014. Dairy imports were stimulated by sturdy domestic demand and increased significantly. Milk powder was mainly imported from New Zealand but with smaller share than the previous year. The global dairy supply increased, and the demand decreased due to Russia＇s new import ban policy, which made international prices of dairy products decline consecutively. International prices of dairy products are expected to continue to slump, and dairy imports will increase further, which would generate the downward pressure to the domestic purchase price of raw milk.