2014年中国食糖消费分析与展望

基于全球宏观经济形势、国内外食糖供给水平、国内涉糖行业运行状况和国内市场调控政策等方面情况,剖析了2014年中国食糖消费市场的总体形势与特点,得出4个主要结论:一是全球经济形势有复苏迹象,但仍有风险因素存在;二是食糖消费总体呈稳定增长态势,个别行业增幅有所下降,食品制造业利润有所企稳;三是国内外食糖价差持续存在,利润动机推动连续3年大量食糖进口,挤占了部分国产糖消费市场,库存高企;四是糖价持续3年下滑,价格低位刺激食糖消费,然而产业链主体出现制糖企业全行业亏损和糖农不赚钱现象。综合宏观局势、供需形势以及产业政策,预计2014年后期食糖消费形势会好于前几个月,稳中回升。

Domestic Sugar Market Consumption in 2014 and Its Future Prospect

Based on the global macroeconomic situation, the supply of domestic and foreign sugar, operating conditions of sugar-related industries and regulatory policies in China, four conclusions have been made by analyzing the consumption situation and characteristics of China＇s sugar in 2014. First, while the global economic situation showed a sign of recovery, risk factors still existed. Second, sugar consumption enjoyed a steady increase, though some industries suffered a drop in growth, and the profit of food manufacturing industries rallied. Third, due to the sugar price spread between domestic and foreign markets, sugar import has increased continuously for three years, which occupied shares of domestic sugar market and led to an increasing inventory. Fourth, while the three-year decrease of sugar price contributed to the sugar consumption, it caused a loss of sugar manufacturers and famers. Taking macroeconomic situation, sugar supply and demand and industrial policies into consideration, the sugar consumption will change better and increase steadily in the remaining month of 2014.