| 中国居民消费价格指数预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李隆玲,田甜,武拉平. 中国居民消费价格指数预测[J]. 农业展望, 2014, 0(7): 75-79 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李隆玲 田甜 武拉平 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1994—2013年中国居民消费价格指数的统计数据,建立ARIMA模型并对2014年中国居民消费价格指数进行预测分析。结果显示,建立的模型预测误差较小,可以对居民消费价格指数进行有效短期预测。以此模型对2014年1—12月居民消费价格指数进行预测,结果表明未来1年物价总水平基本稳定,居民消费价格指数同比涨幅将在3.0%以内。
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| 关 键 词： | 居民消费价格指数 ARIMA模型 预测 自相关函数 偏自相关函数 |
Prediction of Consumer Price Index of China |
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| Li Longling,Tian Tian,Wu Laping. Prediction of Consumer Price Index of China[J]. Agricultural Outlook, 2014, 0(7): 75-79 |
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| Authors: | Li Longling Tian Tian Wu Laping |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Economics ＆ Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of consumer price index from 1994 to 2013 in China, we made a forecast of China＇s consumer price index in 2014 using ARIMA model, which could be used to predict the short-term consumer price index effectively since the prediction errors of model were lower. The prediction results of consumer price index in Jan-Dec 2014 indicated that, the overall price level would remain generally stable, and the growth rate of consumer price index would be less than 3.0 percent in the coming year. |
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| Keywords: | consumer price index ARIMA model prediction autocorrelation function partial autocor- relation function |
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