近55年新疆昭苏县气候变化特征及成因分析

利用昭苏县气象站1956-2010年期间的逐年、月、季平均气温和降水资料,采用线性回归、趋势分析、滑动平均等方法分析了昭苏县最近55年的气候变化特征,并运用非参数检验法(M-K法)对气温降水年变化趋势进行突变检验。结果表明:昭苏县近55年来气温一直呈上升趋势,增温率为0.319℃/10a,明显高于全国和全球;突变检验表明,1989年为增温突变点,突变后的年平均气温为3.4℃,较突变前上升了1.3℃。降水量总体呈增加趋势,21世纪以来增加现象显著;突变检验表明,降水在1969-1975年和2005年以来有增加的趋势,1969和1998为降水突变点,说明21世纪以来昭苏县气候向暖湿化趋势发展。

Climate change characteristics and causes in Zhaosu of Xinjiang over the last 55 years

In order to study the recent climate changing characteristics in Zhaosu county in the Central Asian arid region,and its responses to global warming,the authors analyzed the data of temperature and precipitation from Zhaosu meteorological station from 1956 to 2010,by means of linear regression,trend analysis and moving average.Mann-Kendall trend test has also been used to identify the abrupt point and tendency.The results are as follows: During the past 55 years,the average annual temperature increased significantly and the warming speed was about 0.319℃/10a,higher than that in China and the world.Through the mutation test,the mutation point was 1989;after the mutation the annual temperature was 3.4℃.The annual precipitation increased overall during the past 55 years,especially since 21st century,it increased significantly.Mutation test shows that there were increasing trends of precipitation in 1969-1975 and after 2005;1969 and 1998 were the mutation points.In general,since 21st,the climate of Zhaosu was becoming warmer and wetter.