| 韶关盆地农业旱灾年际分布规律及重灾年份预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 冒正勇,刘会平,倪研贤,苗会强.韶关盆地农业旱灾年际分布规律及重灾年份预测[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(9):3897-3899. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冒正勇 刘会平 倪研贤 苗会强 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州大学地理科学学院,广东广州,510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省自然科学基金
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广东省广州市科技局资助项目
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广东省广州市教育局科技基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 韶关盆地是广东省典型的秋旱受灾地区,旱灾频率高、范围广、强度大、损失重。分析了韶关盆地1985~2005年农业旱灾的时间分布规律,结果表明:在研究时段内,韶关盆地农业旱灾总体呈减缓趋势。1994年以来,受灾率异常指数和成灾率异常指数均值较1994年以前减小。受灾率和成灾率呈正相关,表明韶关盆地农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。运用灰色系统理论的建模方法,建立旱灾受灾率-成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来10年韶关盆地农业趋势进行了预测分析,得出今后10年将出现2个重灾年份,分别在2010~2011年和2017年。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业旱灾 异常指数 灰色系统模型 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611(2008)09-03897-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月7日 |
Temporal Distribution and Trend Prediction of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Shaoguan Basin |
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| MAO Zheng-yong.Temporal Distribution and Trend Prediction of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Shaoguan Basin[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2008,36(9):3897-3899. |
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| Authors: | MAO Zheng-yong |
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| Abstract: | The drought is a main agriculture disaster in Shaoguan Basin,with high frequency wide area,large intensity and heavy loss.In this article the temporal distribution characters of agricultural flood and drought disasters during the period from 1985～2005 in Shaoguan basin were analyzed.It can be seen from analysis that agricultural drought disaster retarded in the research period.The mean value of AIA and AIS had been decreased since 1994.The ratio of suffering area and the ratio of affected area were positive correlative,which indicated the resistance capacity of agriculture system in Shaoguan was faintish in general.Based upon the gray system method,the models were established to predict the ratio of affected area to suffered area from agricultural drought,and the trends in the future 10 years.Gray modeling results indicated that heavy disaster would occur in 2010～2011 and 2017. |
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| Keywords: | Agricultural drought Anomaly index Grey system model Prediction |
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