Using traffic flow theory to model traffic mortality in mammals |
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Authors: | van Langevelde Frank Jaarsma Catharinus F |
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Institution: | (1) Resource Ecology Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Bornsesteeg 69, 6708 PD Wageningen, The Netherlands;(2) Land Use Planning Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Gen. Foulkesweg 13, 6703 BJ Wageningen, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Traffic has a considerable effect on population and community dynamics through the disruption and fragmentation of habitat
and traffic mortality. This paper deals with a systematic way to acquire knowledge about the probabilities of successful road
crossing by mammals and what characteristics affect this traversability. We derive a model from traffic flow theory to estimate
traffic mortality in mammals related to relevant road, traffic and species characteristics. The probability of successful
road crossing is determined by the pavement width of the road, traffic volume, traversing speed of the mammals and their body
length. We include the traversability model in a simple two-patch population model to explore the effects of these road, traffic
and species characteristics on population dynamics. Analysis of the models show that, for our parameter ranges, traffic volume
and traversing speed have the largest effect on traffic mortality. The population size is especially negatively affected when
roads have to be crossed during the daily movements. These predictions could be useful to determine the expected effectiveness
of mitigating measures relative to the current situation. Mitigating measures might alter the road and traffic characteristics.
The effects of these changes on traffic mortality and population dynamics could be analysed by calculating the number of traffic
victims before and after the mitigating measures.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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Keywords: | Mitigation Road ecology Traffic flow theory Traffic mortality Two-patch population model |
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