气候变化对宁夏草地生态系统的影响分析

本文利用野外实测草地干物质产量资料与当地气象站观测资料进行回归分析,分别建立牧草地上部分干物质总产量、优势牧草地上部分干物质产量与气候因子的关系。采用插值分析技术,结合国内外科学家对未来气候变化的研究结论,推算出不同时间(当前、2020年、2050年)250m×250m分辨率的宁夏牧草主要生长季积温和降水量值,进而模拟不同时间牧草地上部分总干物质产量、优势牧草地上部分干物质产量,进一步分析了宁夏草场未来演变趋势。

Effects of the Climate Change to the Grass Ecosystem in Ningxia

Based on the field observation date about dry material output of grasses and local weather observation station date,regress analysis was made and two relationships were established.One was the above dry material of pasturage and climatic factors,another was the above dry material of predominance pasturage and climatic factors.Then using technique of interpose value and conclusions about the climate change which promulgated by scientist such as Qin Dahe etc.,the cumulatived temperature and the precipitation of the main grass growth period in Ningxia at varies year(currently,2020,2050) were calculated,and its resolving power is 250m×250m.The total above dry material of the pasturage and the major predominant grasses were simulated.The development trend of the grass field in Ningxia was analyzed.